These elections will see a contest between two rival visions: one that seeks to take on the status quo establishment and another that seeks to defend it. Two Visions, 21 Blocs, and Many Opportunities for Fraudīarring unexpected developments - sectarian strife, regional conflict, or a spike in COVID-19 cases - Iraq will hold early elections in October 2021, nine months before the current parliament’s term officially expires the following July. In short, unless enough party leaders show the foresight to break with the past and unite around an agenda for change, the prospect for instability in Iraq after the elections is real. Only this time they will be better organized, more fervent, and determined to go for broke. And this, in turn, will send millions of disillusioned youth and disenfranchised citizens back onto the street to protest. In this way, it will hamper the new government’s ability to implement reforms. The consensus model would ensure a collective distribution of spoils while precluding both genuine opposition and accountability. To the disappointment of those seeking reform, the elections are instead likely to produce yet another consensus government, formed by the same perennial class of ruling elites. Unfortunately, while there are a number of plausible post-election scenarios, none of them are likely to deliver on this desire.

The protests revealed a widespread frustration with the Iraqi political establishment, and a widespread desire for change. More than anything else, this election will be a referendum on the major anti-government Tishreen (October) protests that shook the country in 2019.

Iraqis are less than three weeks away from a high-stakes general election.

Inroads sign in